A Pollster’s Guide to the GA Runoff

A built-in advantage for Warnock: 70% of the ticket splitters that Warnock needs to turn out are from urban and suburban areas. Stacey Abrams and the Democratic party have built a grassroots machine all throughout Georgia, and the fact that a large percentage of these ticket splitters are located in densely populated areas is a good thing for Warnock’s prospects.

A built-in advantage for Walker: 39% of this group identified as Republican, 30% identified as Independents, and they all voted for Kemp.  These ticket splitters may not necessarily align with Warnock’s policies, but instead just couldn’t stomach a vote for Walker because of his negatives and association with Trump. The question is: Are these ticket splitters really motivated enough to turn out for a single-race-election to vote for Warnock if many of them actually prefer conservative policies and representation? Walker’s best chance to win is if the answer is “no.”

A suggestion for Hershel Walker: Diversify your message. In this group of respondents, Kemp’s approval for his handling of COVID-19 was at 76%.  Walker’s campaign never really diversified its message away from Biden, inflation, and taxes. Wick Insights has continued to maintain that this was a huge mistake in the general election and will continue to hurt the campaign with these ticket splitters.  For more on this, read our analysis on GA swing voters finding that those who voted for Biden in 2020 and Kemp in 2022 did so because of his handling of COVID-19 policies more than anything else.

A suggestion for Raphael Warnock: Don’t change your messaging. Warnock’s net favorability rating is +62% amongst a group who rated Democratic Rockstar Stacey Abrams at -27%. How did he do this? With a messaging strategy was centered around looking likeable and moderate.  It will be tempting to shift the rhetoric to mirror his 2020 campaign in order to motivate the liberal base to show up on Dec. 6, but such a shift could be a double-edged sword and do more harm than good.