A Tale of 4 Elections
Predicting 2022, Part 5: There are thousands of races on Tuesday, November 8th, but we think the night will be summed up by one of four general outcomes. Part 5 is in video format where our CEO is going to walk through each potential outcome and outline how everything we have discussed in this series act as the forces driving the gap between the polling predictions and voting realities for each outcome.
Here is a quick outline of the outcomes we discuss in the video:
Outcome One: The polling averages we were seeing in the 2 weeks prior to the election ended up being accurate. In this case, we are going to talk about how to explain the massive candidate surges we saw in the 45 to 30 days leading up to the election.
Outcome Two: The Republicans outperform the current polling averages by 3-5 points. Here we discuss, in addition to the polling averages changing so dramatically from September to late October, why there is still a gap between prediction and reality.
Outcome Three & Four: Either Democrats or Republicans, in a general sense, outperform even the most generous polling predictions on election night. We discuss the very most obvious of errors that all pollsters were unwilling to correct.
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