The Key to Georgia’s U.S. Senate Runoff: Nine Percent of Split-Ticket Voters

In a New Explainer Video, Wick Insights CEO David Burrell Tells the Story of Data Supporting Why a Subset of Split-Ticket Voters is Key to Winning Georgia’s Runoff

For Immediate Release: Tuesday, November 22, 2022

(ATLANTA, GA) – In a new explainer video, David Burrell, CEO of Atlanta-based Wick Insights, analyzes a polling dataset of 354 Georgia ticket-splitter voters who answered that they would vote for both Brian Kemp (R) and Raphael Warnock (D). The respondents were aggregated into a single data set from 5 rounds of Georgia polling thats methodology resulted predicting both the Gubernatorial and US Senate races withing 1.6% (1.6% and 0.9% respectively).

“Of course, both sides need their respective bases to turn out, but the real question is ‘What will happen with the nine percent of voters who split their votes between Governor Kemp and Senator Warnock?’” CEO David Burrell explains. “If those voters show up at high rates, it will be a good day for Senator Warnock, but if they don’t, Herschel Walker might have the advantage.”

Of the 354 split-ticket respondents that represent roughly 8.5 percent of the general election’s voters, the self-identified party affiliation breakdown is 39 percent Republican, 30 percent Independent and 28 percent Democrat.  Both candidates’ “get out to vote” messaging strategy could be shaped over the reality that this group might not respond well to the same rhetoric that would motivate the base voters that runoff strategies are typically built around.

Click here to watch the video.

Click here to view the full dataset.

Wick Insights, a FiveThirtyEight A/B-rated polling firm, has earned a reputation as one of the country’s most accurate pollsters.

To request an interview with Wick Insights CEO David Burrell, please email stephanie@wick.io.